Long Bets
- TF
- May 23, 2024
- 1 min read
Long Bets is described as an “arena for accountable predictions.” Although the prediction marketplace is seemingly defunct, it remains super fascinating— especially considering today's rise in prediction markets with companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket that trade on future events.
Launched in 2003 and funded by grants from Jeff Bezos, Long Bets gained media attention around 2018 when Warren Buffet won a $2+ million dollar wager he placed 10 years prior.
As the rules stand, all winnings go to a USA charity of choosing, and all wagers, starting at $200, are tax-deductible and held in an endowment portfolio.
2016 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. Timecode 2:22:22. Footage image: Investor Archive
Kevin Kelly, one of the originators of Long Bets and the founding executive editor of Wired, explained that the intention of the marketplace was to encourage responsibility in long-term thinking and sharpen the logic of forecasting.
Following, are a few bets & predictions on record:
"By 2030, half of the UK adult population will be vegan."
“A bitcoin will be worth less than $1000US by the end of 2025.”
**You might need to take a step-back after you read Bet 9 placed by famed cosmologist Martin Rees that states: “A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than December 31, 2020.”
